This is the 3rd installment of our breakdown of Dan Szymborski’s Team Rankings via Fangraphs. If you’re late to the party, our first 2 pieces can be found here:
Today’s piece will focus on the Braves infield with projected starters of Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Vaughn Grissom, and Austin Riley. With 3 well above average starters and an unknown, this group ranks lower than the Starting Pitchers or Catchers, but by how much? Let’s get to it.
Braves Fangraphs Rankings, 1B: 5th
Matt Olson is coming off of a year of inconsistency and seemed to either be scorching hot or iceberg cold. For 139 games dating from April 24th to September 25th, Matt was a .737 OPS 1B. On the bookends, he was incredible!
- 4/7-4/23: 1.089 OPS
- 9/26-10/5: 1.416 OPS
For most of the year, Olson was a good defensive 1B and a bottom 1/3 offensive 1B. For 23 games, he was Babe Ruth reincarnated. In his 2nd year with the team and the pressure to perform after a trade alleviated, I expect a better 2023 and Fangraphs seems to agree as they have his value at 4.1 fWAR, a full point above his last year’s total. That seems about right.
Braves Fangraphs Rankings, 2nd Base: 8th
After the Ozzie Albies injury, Anthopoulos seemingly went on a warm body search to replace his All-Star 2B. Between Phil Gosselin, Robinson Cano, and Orlando Arcia, nothing really stuck. Vaughn Grissom was given a shot, looked good offensively, ok defensively, then the league adjusted. With Ozzie hopefully manning the position daily, the team can find consistency again. 8th seems low for such a quality player, but reminder that this is factoring in ALL players that will play 2B for the team, not just Ozzie and Fangraphs expect the backups to be replacement level, which isn’t far off. If we were just talking Ozzie, he’s projected to have a 3.4 fWAR, which would actually rank 3rd among all 2B in MLB and make him a 2023 All Star, only behind Jose Altuve and Andres Gimenez.
Braves Fangraphs Rankings, SS: 26th
It’s hard to argue against the unknown, but 26th? Vaughn Grissom has played a grand total of 10 innings at shortstop in the bigs, but has collected 1357 in the minors. Many, including myself, are skeptical that Grissom is ready to fill the role as the Braves everyday SS, especially from a glove perspective. However, one of the most respected infield coaches in baseball history begs to differ and Snitker trusts Ron Washington enough to at least play it out for a few months.
As with 2B, Grissom’s expected 1.9 fWAR would rank him as the 23rd most valuable SS in the bigs, but it’s the lack of depth behind Grissom that penalizes the overall numbers. As for my guess, I’ll be honest…I have no idea. On one hand, I’d like to trust Wash. On the other hand, I’ve watched a lot of MiLB games and I didn’t see an average defender, rather a SS that looks the part of a future 3B. Then again, I also thought *Michael Harris II would be a below average CFer, which completely missed the dartboard and stuck in some drunk dude named Jeb’s forehead. We shall see, but I enjoy the unknown and the storyline that will follow, good or bad.
*In my defense, MHII’s 2021 offseason work put a hyperfocus on leg strength and I’m still convinced that made the difference from what I saw in 2020.
Braves Fangraphs Rankings, 3B: 5th
It’s hard to imagine that a 5.5 fWAR 3B finished 4th in the MLB at his position, but that’s where Austin Riley finished the season with Manny Machado 1st, Nolan Arendado 2nd, and Jose Ramirez 3rd. All 3 outweighed him both offensively and defensively, and the latter is where Riley really falls behind. But that only makes 4, Riley is ranked 5th, so who is the bonehead that ranked behind him last year and ranks ahead of him in the preseason? Alex Bregman. What a turd. Sorry Fangraphs. You got this wrong. Riley might not be able to dethrone Machado, but I expect a top 3 fWAR finish from Riley in 2023.
Final Thoughts
Doing the elementary math, Fangraphs believes that the Braves infield is the 11th best in the league. With Grissom as the outlier, I can’t fault them for being skeptical, but I’d wager a top-10 finish is more accurate.
There’s not really anything left to say about the infield. If everyone stays healthy and Grissom can stick at shortstop, no one will have anything to complain about here. If there’s a serious injury or Grissom isn’t playable, their depth is rubbish and it will be a recurring problem throughout the year.
And that’s the concern, isn’t it? This is 4 potential All-Stars (being extremely generous to Grissom, I know) with absolutely no real backup plan for any of them.
Arcia can play 2B and SS. But after that, there’s not a lot.
I would think Orlando Arcia is among the best backup infielders in baseball if not the best…who else is better? This could be the best offensive team we’ve had since 2003 (which is better than you remember)
Also, fwiw, Alex Bregman is better than you think he is….the AL was worse offensively than the NL last year and Bregman has been excellent for a long time. I’d still rather have Austin Riley but the gap between their true talent is much smaller than you think imo
Dennis Santana was DFA’ed and claimed by the Twins.
Sounds like C.B. Bucknor is in midseason form. Cardinals manager Oli Marmol went to home plate, offered to shake Bucknor’s hand, and C.B. declined. Marmol’s reaction:
“I don’t think he’s good at his job, and it just shows a lack of class as a man,” Marmol added. “That’s my thoughts on it.”
https://theathletic.com/4252000/2023/02/25/cardinals-oli-marmol-umpire-bucknor/
Spicy!
@5 so why was Santana DFA’d??
Numbers crunch.
@6 – I would have some understanding for Bucknor if he had been in the right, but he has to know by now he kicked the call.
Smitty, why did you guys lose to a hole in the ground.
@8 I don’t think the numbers have crunched yet. Considering no one was added and we have potentially three spots on the 40-man roster now. Had to have been something the coaches saw in prep work.
Did anyone even know he was put on waivers? I can’t find any reference anywhere.
@9, to me, this falls into “You had one job” territory. In my opinion, even if Marmol had been in the wrong, for Bucknor to refuse to shake his hand is extremely unprofessional, and it creates an appearance of impropriety. It suggests that he’s nursing a grudge, which similarly suggests that he’s incapable of umpiring the game fairly towards both teams.
Obviously, Bucknor doesn’t need a grudge to kick a call, but I hope the league takes note. If an umpire can’t be bothered to even try to appear fair to both sides, he needs to be reminded what his job entails.
I have no idea why Santana was put on waivers, but I’d wager it was less about performance and more about fit.
My wife and son (23) are in Ft. Myers today to watch the Sox and Twins (they’re Red Sox fans). My son got Jarren Duran to sign a 2023 Topps Series 1 card that says, “Future Stars” on it. When he saw it, my son said he said, “maybe I should show this to Red Sox fans”.
He’s the clown that famously last year lost a ball in the lights/sun as well as several other boneheaded plays and made excuses galore and basically made such a fool of himself the fanbase up here despises him.
“Michael Harris II hit an RBI triple” is one of the sweetest sentences in the English language.
DOB’s podcast is really making a big deal about the new rule changes and how much more valuable Murphy will be. I’m inclined to believe him that the Braves could have some guys with insane SB numbers and we’ll do better than the pack in limiting baserunners.
The people against the rule changes are wrong. I’m sorry. People think being against rule changes make you a purist. No, I’m a purist! I want the game times to go back to where they were 30 years ago! I want stolen bases, excitement, things happening. I love how people will say this is just to appease the casual fan. I’m probably more of a fan than they are! That’s why I want to watch more of it! It’s the casuals that clearly want to watch less baseball, hence their resistance to these rules that create more baseball in less time.
/endrant
Also, I love how the Braves are making Ozuna pretty much the only veteran who has to travel. I don’t know if that’s a troll or punishment or both, or they’re legitimately wanting him to get as many PAs as possible.
I wasn’t listening to today’s game but it appears from the boxscore that Ian still doesn’t remember how to throw strikes.
Yeah, 14 strikes on 29 pitches. That ain’t gonna get the job done.